Bernstein analysts project that crypto-linked equities may be nearing a cyclical bottom following a 60% decline from 2025 peaks, a development that could signal important shifts for blockchain companies' hiring and expansion plans. The Wall Street firm's latest assessment, led by analyst Gautam Chhugani, comes as crypto sector employers navigate continued market volatility and workforce planning challenges.
Revised Targets Reflect Near-Term Caution
The brokerage reduced price targets across major crypto employers while maintaining optimistic long-term ratings. Coinbase saw its target lowered to $330 from $440, while Robinhood dropped to $130 from $160, and Figure to $67 from $72. All three companies retained "Outperform" ratings despite the adjustments.
The firm attributes current pressure to macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and weakened crypto sentiment. However, Bernstein emphasized that fundamental growth drivers remain intact, including stablecoins, tokenization infrastructure, prediction markets, and derivatives platforms—areas that continue to demand specialized blockchain talent.
Workforce Implications Through 2026
Bernstein expects Q1 earnings to represent a sentiment floor before recovery gains momentum in the second half of 2026. This timeline suggests that crypto companies may maintain conservative hiring approaches in the near term before potentially accelerating recruitment as market conditions stabilize.
The analysis arrives as Bitcoin trades in a $65,000-$70,000 range, down significantly from record highs. Reduced trading activity typically correlates with leaner operational structures at exchanges and trading platforms, though companies focused on infrastructure development may continue building teams regardless of price volatility.
Market Context for Web3 Professionals
For blockchain professionals, the current environment presents a mixed outlook. While trading-focused roles may see reduced demand amid lower volumes, positions in tokenization, stablecoin infrastructure, and derivatives development appear positioned for continued growth based on Bernstein's structural analysis.
The subdued volatility environment—partly driven by institutional options positioning—may also favor roles in quantitative trading and market-making operations. Web3 professionals should monitor Q1 earnings reports from major crypto employers for signals about mid-year hiring plans and strategic priorities heading into what analysts anticipate could be a recovery phase.
